Results of the Q2 2019 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Economy

Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2019 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 1.4%, 1.5% and 1.6% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. These results represent downward revisions of 0.1 percentage points (p.p.) for each of those years compared with the previous (Q1 2019) survey round. Average longer-term inflation expectations (which, like all other longer-term expectations in this SPF, refer to 2023) were unchanged at 1.8%.

SPF respondents’ expectations for growth in euro area real GDP averaged 1.2%, 1.4% and 1.4% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. This represents downward revisions of 0.3 p.p. for 2019 and 0.1 p.p. for 2020, with no change for 2021. Average longer-term expectations for real GDP growth were revised down slightly to 1.4%.

Average unemployment rate expectations were broadly unchanged. At 7.8%, 7.6% and 7.5% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively, the latest expectations continued to point to further falls in the unemployment rate over the next three years. Expectations for the unemployment rate in the longer term were revised down slightly to 7.4%.

Table: Results of the ECB Survey of   Professional Forecasters for Q2 2019
(annual percentage changes, unless   otherwise indicated)

1) Long-term   expectations refer to 2023.
2) As   a percentage of the labour force.

 

Source: europa.eu

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